Exclusive poll: Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in Arizona

With less than six weeks until the general election, former President Donald Trump holds an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Arizona, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.
Trump leads Harris by 6 points, 48% to 42%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The poll is considered within the 4.4% margin of error – meaning the race is still tight because the margin can move in either direction by those points for the two candidates. The poll was conducted between Sept. 21 and 24.
In bellwether Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, which also typically indicates how the state will go, Trump holds a smaller lead over Harris, 47% to 43%, according to a separate poll conducted by the same team over the same period. That figure is within the 5.7% margin of error for that poll, which surveyed an additional 300 likely voters in Maricopa County.
Slightly less than half – 47% – of Latino voters in Arizona said they support Harris, the statewide poll found. Trump has the support of 35% of Latinos in the state. Arizona has about 1.3 million eligible Latino voters, roughly a quarter of the state’s registered voters.
With 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a key battleground state on the pathway to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Harris and Trump are vying hard for the state, with the Vice President traveling to Douglas, Az., on Friday. Earlier this month, Trump held a rally in Tucson. Both campaigns have also had top surrogates visit the state recently.
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Trump’s lead spells trouble for Harris, who initially saw a bump in polling in the state after she replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by fewer than 11,000 votes. Trump in 2016 carried the state. Still, the poll found that 5% of those polled haven’t yet made up their minds.
Ana Keck, who voted for Biden in 2020, said she will be casting her ballot for Trump this time around because she believes Democrats have mishandled the economy and foreign policy, such as Russia’s war with Ukraine. 
“I just don’t think that they’ve come up with the change that they said that they were going to come up with,” Keck, 39, of Scottsdale said of Democrats.
But for Jordan Waddell, 30, the protections of women, like abortion access, as well as LGBTQ+ rights, and fears of project 2025 are why she will be supporting Harris. 
“We all really need a president who is not focused on hate,” said Waddell, who lives in Avondale. “Donald Trump, he doesn’t understand any of that. And he’s not focused on making America better for the lowest people.”
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More than half – 58% – of Arizona voters said they will vote yes in supporting Arizona Proposition 139, a Constitutional amendment that provides the fundamental right to abortion in the state. 
Abortion and reproductive rights have become a key part of Harris’ campaign messaging. Last week, Harris called for restoring abortion rights to Georgia following a ProPublica report that Amber Thurman, a 28-year-old pregnant woman, died in that state after doctors struggled to grapple with its new abortion restrictions. 
Trump has repeatedly bragged about helping end Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court overturned in 2022. He’s said that he wants the states’ to decide abortion laws.
Shea Ruskin, of Scottsdale, will be voting yes to support Arizona’s amendment. The 33-year-old, who was unable to vote in the last election because of voter registration issues, will be casting her ballot this election for Harris.
“I am very concerned about women’s rights, for the autonomy of their bodies,” she said, noting that she does “see a positive future with” Harris as president.
Keck, who is supporting Trump, said she is “pro-choice” and supports the constitutional amendment.
“I have two daughters. I want them to have a decision,” she said, adding that abortion is the type of care also needed for people with health issues or people who have been raped.
And while women’s health is among her top priorities, Keck said she would like to see the discussion widen beyond abortion to include other parts of women’s health like childbirth. In 2017, Keck’s daughter was born at 32 weeks after experiencing a life-threatening pregnancy complication called HELLP syndrome. Keck and her daughter were in the hospital for two months.
“They don’t talk about how the number one thing that kills women is childbirth,” Keck said. “What are they planning to do with that?”
Inflation and the economy was the top concern among respondents at 27%, according to the poll. 
When asked about the economic conditions in Arizona, 5% said it was excellent and 26% said it was good. “Fair” and “poor” were tied at about 33% each.
Overall, a majority – 52% – of respondents said they were worse off than they were four years ago, compared to 39% who said they were better off.
Trent Kay, a 33-year-old from Gilbert, a suburb of Phoenix, said he is voting for Trump because he believes the Republican Party will also be better for the economy. Kay didn’t vote in the last election, saying he didn’t think it mattered as much then.
“Economy is the big one for me. That’s the big slider for me,” Kay said. “I don’t feel like the other side has any kind of grasp on what to do with the economy or how to handle foreign policy.”
Waddell, the Avondale resident, however, said Trump is focused on helping the rich, rather than focusing on the middle class.
“The last four years, they’ve been trying to fix what has already happened,” she said. “We can’t go back to what has already happened. It hasn’t been economically safe.”
Immigration is also a key issue for Arizona voters, the survey found, with 21% of those in this border state saying it’s their top issue.
Trump has made cracking down on immigration a cornerstone of his campaign, saying he will reimplement his hardline programs, as well as new harsher policies such as mass deportations. The Biden administration has faced criticism for their handling of the border after record levels of encounters following the pandemic. However, immigration numbers have plunged in recent months.
Harris will visit the border in Arizona on Friday, where she will speak about border security and push a bipartisan border security bill that Trump pressured Republicans to kill.
Tonya Neely, 51, of Florence, Arizona, said she believes Biden and Harris’ border policies have left the United States “vulnerable.”
“Joe and Kamala have done a horrible job of taking care of the people that live here,” said Neely, a Phoenix police and 911 dispatcher who medically retired in 2013.
But for some, their votes are coming down to who they believe will not challenge the country’s Democratic values.
Carlos Pacheco, 46, of Yuma, said he believes Harris is a smart and educated woman with “her heart in the right place.”
While he has concerns about some of her policies, like her recent announcement of $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first time-homebuyers, he thinks she is the best option among all those presented by Republicans, Democrats and third parties.
“In this election, my focus, or at least the way I’m voting, and the reason for that vote, is to preserve the normal order and preserve democracy as we know it,” said Pacheco, a registered Independent who has voted for both Republicans and Democrats.
(This story has been updated to correct an error.)